Fight VUCA with VUCA: The new VUCA world

Operating in a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous) world is this episode’s topic. We explore how businesses can harness vision, understanding, collaboration, and action (VUCA 2.0) to thrive amidst turbulence. Navigate unprecedented challenges, with practical examples from the business arena. Whether a seasoned entrepreneur or a business newbie, tune in to reshape your strategic approach for a VUCA world.

Transcript
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So VUCA, VUCA is volatility, uncertainty,

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complexity in ambiguity.

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And why did we land on this topic?

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We landed on it because it's the world we live in.

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It is the VUCA environment around us everywhere.

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Our context is obviously business, but it's everywhere.

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It's global.

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It's it's just trying to make, you know, sense of trying

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to head into the future in progress.

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But we live in a virtual world, so.

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In a VUCA world, all businesses are startups,

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or businesses have never faced more of just what was just saying.

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And you just start thinking about like where competition comes from, right?

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And you and just words gone to and businesses

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it's it's they're getting competition and you know almost

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in a way I think about it like attacked from all sides.

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And there is very few safe choices anymore.

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If a company tries to be risk adverse,

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you know, they end up doing nothing.

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Right.

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They're you know, they're stuck in a actually,

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one of the things I was reading about, I was like, man,

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that's kind of funny is, you know, if you're if you try to figure out

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all of your risks and, oh, my gosh, there's so much higher rate than you do

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the paralysis by analysis and you're just stuck.

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It's funny you just mentioned that.

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It just made me think of the whole Bud Light thing going on right now.

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My gosh.

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I mean, who could a great example.

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Way I haven't been following, so catch me up.

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So Dylan Mulvany, she's a transgender influencer.

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Mm hmm.

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And Bud Light sent her some cans with her

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face on it to celebrate her.

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I think it was one year.

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She was 365 days. A woman.

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Yeah. Huh.

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So on her 365th day, huh?

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They sent her. And.

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And she is a social media influencer.

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Okay, so it's not it wasn't like some random person.

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Like, this is somebody that has lots and lots of followers and etcetera, etcetera.

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Okay.

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So they for March Madness, sent her

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and her birthday, her womanhood birthday.

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You know, Senator can.

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Oh, so Bud Light since they did that, has lost

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like almost a quarter of their, you know,

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their

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sales have dropped by 20 like 26% market share.

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Yeah. So I heard 1%.

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Well hold and I'll because I read that article.

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So but so Bud Light the brand

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okay Yeah Their sales have dipped 26%.

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Anheuser-Busch Anheuser-Busch, their valuation

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drop $5 billion.

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Huh. And

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so then when they did their earnings call,

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they overall Bud Light,

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the loss of revenue for Bud Light was 1% of InBev's.

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Gotcha sales.

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I see in beer sales.

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But that but that's who owns them.

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Well right but curious whose sheet that is, is it Anheuser-Busch

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is 1% or InBev because 1% of InBev is a lot different than that.

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No, it was one I think it's 1% of InBev.

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Which would be like, yeah, that's a major hit.

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Oh, yeah. Well, I mean, you know, would you.

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Yeah. Yeah.

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And and so anyway, so yeah, what Brett's alluding to

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is that and actually that's funny because you're I thought the same thing.

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I'm like, who in a million, you know, there's been so many

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influencers and like, you know, like and just, you know,

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similar things, you know, Pride Month and blah blah, blah,

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you know, all this stuff. Yeah.

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And that was and the only way I can think of is just that

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that was like the straw that broke the camel's back.

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And people were like, Hmm, yeah, not, not with Bud Light.

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And they. Yeah.

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And that has been

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I, I was watching and

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I, I can't reference who I person you know something and,

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and they were talking about it and they were like,

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you know, they're like Bud Light might never recover from this and,

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and you know, the and I thought about that I'm

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I'm a light beer drinker Yeah.

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So course you're caused cause I know that.

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Yeah. So but here's the deal.

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So what the person said oh my gosh, there's a lot truth.

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They're sort of saying like, if you take these light beers,

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you know, you're got Coors Light, Miller Lite, But it was several Michelob.

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Yeah, they're there's not a lot of difference between them really.

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You probably have picked that drink of choice by through something else.

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Your dad drank it or you know what I mean.

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Like, like something.

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Brand association. Or something. That's cool.

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I like was it was not did you.

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Say that you identified with Bud Light?

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I'm going for it now. No.

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Well, I didn't, but Yeah, but I did.

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Identified with the silver bullet.

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Yeah. No, but anyway.

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That's right.

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So I mean that's, that's the, that's the truth right there.

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Dead serious.

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And so anyway,

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but now

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you know that they've lost all these people

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and so many people like have, have, you know,

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bars and restaurants have said like, no, we're not going to carry it anymore

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and this and that.

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And so, you know, you're you're you're not going to have this

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these people come back because of

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because it's superior that that's the problem.

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It's not like if you if you like, you know, if you like Coca-Cola.

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Yeah, yeah.

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I mean, if if that's what tastes

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good to you and that's what you're going to drink.

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But because these other ones are so similar, you're,

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you know, the fact that people went away, they're not going to come back.

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You know, they're changing their identities. Yeah,

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but. I'll stop there.

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Okay?

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Oh, my.

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But yeah, it's a and who would have thought.

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Yeah. Outside.

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Outside of right or wrong or.

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Sure. No. Yeah.

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I feel like there are I mean the, the backlash on this one is unprecedented

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and I think AB InBev, from what I understand, they're trying to play it off.

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Yeah.

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Bud Light's made a lot of changes in their leadership and leave and,

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you know, they've done a terrible job backpedaling from this.

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They they just I think it goes back to something we saw with the MLB

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with like BLM, the World Series, and it was like they were

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did a terrible job

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managing that until they made they just made a decision and said,

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you know what, We're picking a direction to move the All-Star Game to.

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Yeah, of course. Country.

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Mm hmm.

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Ironically, man, you I don't even know how you react to that

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in, in such a large industry where it's like, like 1% matters to them.

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Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, yeah.

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You know, and maybe the circle back into the topic around VUCA and what,

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you know, been thinking of like you're every business is in startup

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in that type of a world and thinking about the concept of change

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and I think I think what's really interesting is looking

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at these big behemoths in in the in the group of context right

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where 1% is monumental, right?

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Where any risk is just super calculated and it could be,

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you know, monumentally impactful difference.

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Between market leader or market follower.

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Exactly.

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And I am just really wondering what the role of,

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you know, these big, big businesses are in the future

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if they're set up to survive, if they're going to be around in.

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And it sounds like, you know, this is all in an effort to like change

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and innovate in a really weird kind of messed up way that did not go well

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for them.

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I'm just I'm just wondering, you know, like how

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what's the role of these businesses and what will the landscape look like?

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Because I don't see VUCA going away.

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Like, I just don't like COVID was bad and it threw shit out of whack for sure.

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Is it our world?

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It seems like things are changing at a rapid pace now.

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I with, you know, just, you know, we're coming into this

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new age of technology like shit is not going to stay still ever again.

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I feel Well, I.

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I think I mean to interrupt you, but but like, like when you talk

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about, like, something like this, like with the Bud Light commercial,

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it it's a it's a perfect example

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of, you know, in the past

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you did a marketing campaign

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and if it failed, you're like, damn it, we spent $10 million

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on a marketing campaign and we didn't get any benefits of it.

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Right.

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But but this using this as a showing this I mean, this would go under

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probably a couple of different checkmarks of of a VUCA world.

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But, you know, the they did an ad and they went backwards

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and they would have I mean, I don't think anyone.

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Right.

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I'm very confident, you know, no one would have ever have thought

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that by doing an ad campaign, you would go backwards.

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Yeah.

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And hurt yourself so much.

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Competition isn't even coming

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from their competitors competition, you know, like they

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their competition came from their loyal drinker base.

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Yeah.

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That said, no, thank you.

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And I mean that that's got to be unprecedented.

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It was probably the only other screw up of this

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magnitude can be when Coke went to New Coke.

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Yeah. Oh, yeah.

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And then they had to, you know, I don't know how long that

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lasted, but, you know, nine months later, they were like, just kidding.

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Guys. Yeah. It's the old. Coke.

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The difference, which is it's kind of a fun comparison.

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And I would

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I would love to spend a lot of time

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breaking down the Bud Light thing and like, where they went wrong.

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But if you look at Coke versus New Coke, it's like

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it'd be like Coke changing the logo, but not the recipe.

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Yeah, new Coke.

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Yeah, totally.

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Yeah. And it's so bizarre to think about somebody,

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you know, way back when when that happened,

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I remember it probably all too well. But,

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you know, imagine somebody back then going, Oh my God,

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have you seen that new Coke?

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No, thank you.

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I will not be seen with a Coke kid in my head.

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You can. Hear the. Stuff, right?

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But now that's. You're right.

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I mean, that is exactly how Bud Light is glazing perfectly with this.

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Yeah, it just shows it.

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I mean, that that all this can come from anywhere.

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Yeah. Yeah.

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For an organization like AB InBev to and like Bud Light.

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Right. You know, again, they've been doing this for a while, right?

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You got to think their their intelligence, their their decision making process

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like all that's got to be like fine tuned and just super honed in and for this

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to be the outcome it's just like how do you like what the hell happened?

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The masters of marketing Think about the

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you know, the all the different commercial campaigns that were referenced

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in pop culture and movie, you know, all across things.

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And yeah, how many Super Bowl commercials, you know, from from

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classic like, you know, Clydesdales to, you know, silly things,

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you know, the, the, the WhatsApp and stuff.

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Was that. These

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so yeah it's it's it's an interesting one.

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So that that was a

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a fast start what

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I mean I think it just kind of goes to show

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yeah it's true world we're living in right now

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it's it's not hard to find a really impactful example.

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Yeah.

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And you know I don't necessarily think that was

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a mistake on Bud light part rate

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for for trying something new it

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there's certainly things to learn from it from them if they want to continue

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to be the same company. Yeah yeah.

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If they don't that's a different story from a VUCA standpoint.

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I, I spend a lot of time thinking about planning

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just naturally where my mind went

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and I don't know that I, I, I came up with

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anything like solid to actually do this.

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My first take was instead of building a plan,

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how do you

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build a system around what you want, you know, outcome to be So

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and I think this is a great example of what start ups have to do

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is you have to be agile and lean and have a system

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in place that that allows you to pivot really quickly.

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So even in a sense

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where if Bud Light needs to be a startup, that's not going to happen.

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But maybe, maybe this is the the self

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pruning of our large companies because they just can't.

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Yeah. Do what needs to be done anymore.

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Well, I mean, like,

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I think what you're bringing up, I think about it very similarly.

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The cute phrase I keep in my head is it's the difference between doing

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what we've always done because you've got the data

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to back it versus anticipating what the future holds.

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Right? Right.

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So it's like this, Hey, we've got all the trends in history

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and you know, all this the stuff of like this is how it works.

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And so we're going to we're going to keep that core

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and, you know, put an innovation sheen on it.

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Right.

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Which I don't I think it kind of I feel like that's

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kind of what's happening with all of these big businesses, right?

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Like we're just trying to do the same thing but make it look different.

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What we're

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really needing are kind of where where I see

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organizations being successful in a vocal world

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is being able to lean into that, that kind of uncertainty, right?

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Like we can kind of see where the

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not even necessarily a trend, but like where certain pockets of needs are, right?

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Where we see opportunities, anticipate,

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you know, what the what the needs are going to be in an area

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and being able to capitalize on going after that

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building systems like you mentioned, Brett, to make good on that.

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And honestly, having the organization set up said to do that.

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Right.

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It's one thing to see where things are going and a completely other thing

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to be able to set up a business to make make the opportunity, you know,

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financially successful or fulfilling whatever it is.

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Right. Like it's totally different.

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Now, I know you come from the oil and gas industry.

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Can you there's probably tons of examples where you see that

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that shift needing to happen.

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Do you have like a here's the way it works, here's the way it should work?

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Yeah, So that's a great point.

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And yeah, I do have I have lots of examples.

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The one that comes to mind is, you know, I think

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we live in a world where climate change is driving

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so much of thoughts around energy, around how we do everything right.

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And what we're I've seen, as, you know,

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where I see some examples of like, hey, we need to do this better.

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And in trying to be, I guess, you know, kind of on the front end of it is

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can can we build like a say, like an oil plant

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or a processing facility that doesn't doesn't emit.

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Right.

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If we think that oil and gas has a place in the future

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and this is in my personal take, this is just rhetoric and kind of

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what's out there.

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If oil and gas has a place in the future,

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how do we do it in a way that, you know, we're not actually

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we're not the bad guys that are pumping a bunch of CO2

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into the atmosphere right before it even gets like a car.

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Right? We're just doing combustion engine, right?

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There's a whole bunch of issues around how much methane, you know,

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comes out of the process.

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But thinking of in a more personal experience of mine has been like,

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can I design an actual facility, you know, a surface base facility

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that gathers the oil and gas and make it so that we can measure and verify

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that there's no no air and emissions, no no leakage of anything and everything

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that comes out of the ground stays in the can in the pipe and will do

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so all through the value chain.

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And so those are areas where I do see like some

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like the talk is there and the intention is there.

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Some of the actions aren't always very aligned.

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And so often and I say more often than not,

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and something that actually drove my exit from the industry was

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when you when you get to like the town halls and you get to the

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the investor calls, you know, they're all talking points.

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But what always ends up being the major focus is

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the performance of the business, right?

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The production levels that you're hitting, the the financial drivers.

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Right, Right.

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And that never went away.

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So it could never get the sense that, hey, we're willing to take a risk

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and implement a change and do something different,

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even though it's risky to potentially hurt our business in a financial way.

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There was never any appetite for that.

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There was never any consideration of that.

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It was always just we're keeping this ship steady and we're going to make it

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make some shiny, innovative, you know, pitches, ideas

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that, you know, as me,

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someone who was trying to actually implement

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true change was really frustrating and hard to deal with and not something

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that I see being sustainable in the long term.

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So how does VUCA play into that world right now?

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Yeah, so VUCA is playing into that world in the sense that,

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I mean, you look at oil and gas volatility, we'll just do one at a time.

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In terms of the letters.

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You've got major competition from renewables now.

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It's very cheap in economics to do so.

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So it's making the just the demand for oil and gas

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a bit wonky to predict, you know, volatile up and down.

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You looked in the last two, three years,

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you've seen an all time low of oil

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be negative and which has never happened in the history of ever life.

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There was I remember the day it was in 2021

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maybe I can't remember the exact I remember

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feeling the feelings of like, wow, I'm working for an oil and gas business.

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And today the price of oil is negative, which means, like anything

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that I do, which doesn't directly translate right necessarily.

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But it's funny to think about, right? It's like, Oh, shit.

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Like we're trying to we're paying to give away oil.

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Yeah, so weird.

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But so there's there's a ton of volatility in that space,

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uncertain with how things are going to be

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needed.

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And think about globally, right?

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Think about globally.

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Like here in the U.S., we've got a lot of renewable and clean energy incentives.

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We've got pushes a lot of energy to make that transition.

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There are developing countries

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and nations around the world that aren't in that situation.

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You think about, you know, a lot of Europe right now who's been reliant on Russia

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for their oil and gas products and to heat their homes and power

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their infrastructure,

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who all of a sudden new pressures and different demands there.

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So it's like, oh, crap, can is that going to be something that sustains?

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How is that going to play out? That's crazy.

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The complexity brought in by anything like different technologies,

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different actors around the world, it's super complex.

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Can you make something that is inherently a fossil dirty energy clean

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like you can, but it's complex and ambiguous.

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It's just I mean, I don't know how much more I can say, right?

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Like it's you put it all together and it's just like you can see how

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how convoluted it is.

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Maybe one thing I'll I'll lean into is just I think about being

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a historical shareholder in terms of like I own oil and gas stock, right?

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And I've gone in and out of that.

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I've, I've divested from that.

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I've come back or divested.

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I've come back all from the standpoint of do I want my voice at the table or not?

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Right. Does that does my voice matter?

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Like how how can I draw and and I even think about it

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more institutional investor, right?

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Someone who has more like say, than I do. Right.

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How does that person weigh with, oh, we want to drive change.

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We don't want to encourage bad habits, right?

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So it's it's all over the place.

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It's all over the place. Yeah. Very VUCA.

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Very similar in the in the like Delta energy business then data center world.

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What I think about again is like supply chain,

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you know, and talk about uncertainty and stuff.

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I mean we've, you know, it'll be interesting to see what can happen

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if you could supply everyone everything

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and there's just not enough there's not enough of anything.

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But I mean, there's still certain raw materials that are shortage.

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There's a worker shortage, skilled, skilled labor shortage.

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You know, microchips are still in a shortage.

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And this is true uncertainty, right?

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Like, yeah, that's it's true. And not just delayed.

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You don't know when there'll be enough production.

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So yeah I mean, you know, and people talk about, you know, it's it's

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out there and obviously they're like with the chip manufacturers, right.

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I mean there's you know, I think there's four of them

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going in the United States now, as they've said, hey, we're can't

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can't survive on, you know, or rely on China for our supply of those.

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So, see, I mean, I,

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I guess you could say yes, eventually we will get tied up.

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But but, you know, I mean, that's just on the chips.

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I mean, they're still other supply chain

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things and it's unforseen pressures

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on a business and and who knows who's going to survive.

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You know, just talk about like like acting like a startup.

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Like, you know, when you're thinking about as a startup business,

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I mean, you're just trying to say, hey, I want to, you know, survive

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and get to a sustainable business model, right?

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I mean, get something.

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And, you know, and obviously if you're like you're in manufacturing or something

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like that, you know, get your economy scale in order so you can,

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you know, grow and make money and make things.

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And even like what you're talking about, like oil and gas and stuff.

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I mean,

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the supply chain plays a huge role in that.

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And Asia, yeah, a lot of external

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pressures.

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That would be, I guess, hard

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to to sit and expect.

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So now it's here and again, to act as a startup.

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So it hits you.

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You've got to be able to be flexible

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and quick to respond.

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And and again, you know, you you're mentioning some of these big companies,

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a lot of them, you know, we we joke, you know, it's a big ship or something.

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You know, it's hard to turn it.

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But, you know, honestly, I mean, you know, you've got to have leadership in place

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that can make quick decisions and

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and change things quickly.

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So I get the need to respond quickly.

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But but questioning how like, if if a business is

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just some sort of aggregation of all its ROIC.

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Right. And you invest time, you invest resources

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all towards

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some goal, how do you make sure you actually are on track for a goal?

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You know, pivoting could be changing suppliers.

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Pivoting could be like this.

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This whole revenue stream is dead.

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If you have two years to deliver to get to a data center

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right like you have to have some other way of making income.

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Presumably if you want to grow or get anywhere, like how do you balance that?

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Yeah, it's a tough thing in the idea of like staying the course

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with like an eye strategy

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or an idea amidst all the VUCA ness hitting you right,

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and being like, Yeah, we know it's crazy right now.

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Supply chains that are uncertain, but we have this vision

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and we're heading towards it and we've got a strategy

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that's got us going on that vision and we're going to stick to it.

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Right?

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And almost thinking of VUCA, more of like noise, there's

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there's got to be a gray zone of, hey, it's noise.

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But there's also some real factors at play here, right?

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I think that you don't want to be like herky jerky

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in terms of like knee jerk with decisions and directions and whatnot.

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That's really unsettling and probably making things worse.

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But you have to have like a you have to have Northstar,

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you've got to have an idea of what you are as a business,

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which you're trying to achieve and what's important.

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And that that vision and those values are the cornerstone.

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And you branch out from there and build out from there

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and, and let that open up opportunities for you.

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So like, hey,

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I got our data set or won't be revenue positive or generating for two years

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and we've got to figure out what to do today.

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What are your what partnerships are out there

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like what is the purpose of your business and who cares about that?

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Also, who can help you make that a reality, right?

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You know, what are you what are you sharing?

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What's your marketing look like? I think that's another thing, right?

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Who you how you actually pitching this to people that that do care.

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And where are your allies and where can you find synergies

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to make reacting quickly and flexibly an option.

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That's where my mind goes then what you think?

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Well, I want to ask Brett a question.

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So you worked at Ticketmaster? Yes.

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When when COVID hit?

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I did.

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So, I mean, that was that is literally the most extreme

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you sell people tickets to go to events

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and no one could go to events.

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This is true.

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So so I mean, you were on the inside,

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you know, And so, I mean, what I would love to hear,

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like what some of that leadership decision making was about, like,

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holy cow, you've literally like an in in a two week timeframe.

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You had no more revenue. Yes.

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So what was that like? Scary. Yeah.

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From a leader ship perspective,

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I don't think anybody had even embraced

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well, call it the VUCA ness of what was going on at the time.

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Right.

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So one of the things that that I, I complain about a lot is whiplash.

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Right.

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And I think it's the, the knee jerk reactions that that Taylor's

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talking to Live nation who owns Ticketmaster

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when a different route out of the gate and kind of said you know we

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we are a very strong business

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that can withstand this for a long time and said you know

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just feel safe and where you're at this isn't going to hurt us.

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We back on line when we can. Right.

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But I think after a month goes by,

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you know, people are starting to sweat and be like,

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oh my God, we can't do this forever, actually.

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So what do we have to do now?

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And so the the decision at that time was made on on what,

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you know, some sort of prediction

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of a very uncertain future.

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And I think, you know, I've heard the way

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certain companies handled it versus live Nation.

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Live Nation went through several rounds of of rifts or reductions and forces

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and other measures, pay cuts to to try to combat what was going on.

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Other companies took very hard cuts out of the gate

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and to make sure that they save every last

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bit of money to to get through this.

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It's hard to say one's right or wrong.

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And at the time, this was certainly unprecedented.

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But what it called out is nobody was ready for this to happen

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and nobody had built a business that was ready to react to this happening.

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It was impossible to get through it, I think, without serious changes.

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And I think that's what I like about this topic the most and the,

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you know, comments about startup, it's like actually now in this world,

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how do we set up our business for success knowing that this is probably

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going to be the new world?

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And, you know, one of the things that we keep bringing up

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is that, you know, we are now in the age of information, right?

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Like change information is flowing faster than ever. So

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I'm almost viewing this VUCA world

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as just a compressed timeline of what we used to live in.

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We had time to make decisions, we had time to do research,

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we had time to think about stuff.

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Now we have less time.

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And then if I ushers in a new industrial age,

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it's going to even be faster.

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It's going to probably feel like the pandemic overnight again.

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And so how do you set up that business to, like, run at that speed at the time?

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It is super scary and and nobody was prepared to

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to even tackle the level of it needed to be done.

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Yeah. Or predict what was going to happen.

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How do you react to something that you don't know which are reacting to react.

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Well, I mean to your point, like if you had a purpose to an extent,

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Live Nation could have said and they they tried

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to get into virtual events and whatnot, but I think they could have said

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our job is to make connections, you know, and that's what they're there.

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The slogan was is

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get you in right and act.

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And I think immediately out of the gate there, even from a community standpoint,

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there could have been a different level of engagement that could have used,

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you know, that the infrastructure that they had for different purposes,

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creating different types of connections and so,

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you know, I'm not saying that would have been enough to stop any

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of the layoffs from happening at the time, but it might have helped.

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It might not.

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Well, and I and I don't know

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from a business perspective, of course,

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the the survival of the business is the most important thing.

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I think about this also like a destination type journey.

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I'm in a car, my car quits working.

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So now I've got to figure out I'm trying to get West.

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Now I've got to figure out and getting,

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you know, getting a boat and and go instead of a car, right?

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I mean, seriously. Right.

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And I mean I mean, I think that's kind of where this takes us, right?

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Is like, you know, this you've got to drive down the

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you know, you drive as far as you can in the car.

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Now you got to get in a boat and you go on a boat as far as you can.

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Now, you got to get in a plane and and sometimes it might get hard.

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And so you have to get on a bike

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and and it's not fun for anyone, right?

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I mean, it's not the way you want to, you know,

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if you think of, like terms of like a a travel experience, right.

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You're like, I would much rather be in a plane right now than on a bike.

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But that's your options.

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So now you get on a bike and you go and, you know, just just as you're dealing,

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as you're getting hit

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with all these types of things, because when you when you talk about something

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that is like there's a limited number

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of things that can disrupt and affect

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both negatively and positively your business.

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You've just got to you've got to just keep moving forward.

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And what I heard you here say and and also with the speed

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you need decisive people, I mean, you know,

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somebody that can I mean, I think there's a lot of people

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that can make comments like, yeah, I mean, there's a lot of people

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that, you know, wait and see and well, let's let's ride this out.

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Let's see what the numbers from the first quarter say or something.

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Right.

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But, you know, I mean, if you have somebody

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that can really be decisive and say,

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you know what, this is what I think and this is where we're going.

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You know what I like the boat analogy because what it makes me

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think if I was a leader and I'm like, all right, we got to go get in this boat

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now to get to our destination because we get it.

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You know, we were going to take the bridge but bridges down.

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So now we got to get in this boat.

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Mm hmm. I don't have a boat mechanic.

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So if if the boat breaks down, what are we going to do?

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Oh, that's a whole new set of issues that you cannot possibly plan for.

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And I think this is where my head was with planning, is

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you can't plan for everything that's going to go wrong.

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So how do you actually, you know, build that culture that that says, all right,

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you know, we have enough smart people in here and somebody needs to

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now figure out how to operate this boat.

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We need a pilot. We need, you know, a mechanic on the boat.

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And we're going to get to that island.

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By the way, if if that island

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now blows up and we have no destination to go to.

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A really exciting movie, I want to watch this.

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It may

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kind of makes me think of succession planning for for somebody at work.

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Right.

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If you were to just have a team that was critical

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and one day the most important person left

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and you just like, Oh gosh, that sucks, right?

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Like, what are we going to do now?

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It's like, Well, you should have thought about the bridges.

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Jump off the boat,

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swimming in the water. Didn't say anything.

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I didn't even think of anywhere near this.

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But just what you're talking about right here reminds me a lot of

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like the military. Yeah.

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And you think about and.

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And I kind of go and I'm like, man, you know, like, if you're on a boat

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and you know what happens, all right?

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You've got jeeps, you can do this. Bam, We leave.

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We're. We're heading to Hawaii.

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Well, VUCA is a military term, is it not?

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I honestly didn't know that.

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I'm not sure I thought so.

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Yeah, I think it's like, Yeah, older than we think it is.

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Yeah. Yeah. I,

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I did not know that.

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Didn't mean to interrupt you, but. Yeah, no, no, no, it's fine. But.

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So. So anyway, but I'm sitting there thinking to myself,

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I'm like, all right, like, if you're in a boat going to Hawaii

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and you got GPS and everything, well, what happens if you lose power, Right?

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Well, you can.

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And you remember, you know, like the North Star, you can

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you could probably get pretty close.

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I mean, you know, it might not be.

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And again, just like how messy the real world is, right?

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Yes. The best case scenario is you have your plan and you work your plan

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and you get from A to B, But when you have all these other things and like you and

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and just like what you were talking about, I mean, if you don't have a plan to deal

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with issues, emergencies, problems, then you're going to be dead in the water.

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But if you can, you know, but

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but if you can be like, oh yeah, yeah, yeah, or whatever, you know.

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But but yeah. And same thing, right?

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If you, if you don't have some way to deal with it

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And of course it, it's not what anyone wants to think about

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but if you have to, I think that was really insightful for me.

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It's fun to think about Ticketmaster or Live Nation.

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It's all like literally Hawaii wasn't there.

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All of a sudden

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they're like, We're

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going to we're getting to Hawaii and this is going to be awesome.

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In a way, he just disappears. Yeah, Yeah.

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That's crazy. It is.

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You know, And I think what's jumping out to me is like a couple of things.

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I agree that you've got to be you got to have decisive decision makers.

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That's got to be balanced and which every time I hear

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about quick decisions like the word that that comes to mind is bias, right?

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You're going to have bias in those decisions.

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So be careful with that.

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And thinking about, yeah, Hawaii did like disappearing on you.

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Like all of a sudden it's I think what comes up to me

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in that instance is if you're on a boat, the question

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that you have to ask yourself as a leader of an organization is

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where now is what do we do now?

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It's hard to think about like, what's Hawaii, the North Star, right?

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And assuming

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that it is, and playing this scenario out like Hawaii was our North Star.

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That's where we were going.

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But it is now gone. It is now gone.

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I think questions are okay, will it come back?

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If it doesn't, where where do we go now?

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Do we want to go somewhere?

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I agree with what you're saying, but my mind immediately goes

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to how much food do we have on this boat?

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How much water?

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Like how soon do we need to make like, pick a direction?

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Like what is what is the state and can you operate

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in that way on a daily basis?

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That's a whole different process of constantly how much water's on.

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And it's it's probably exactly how the military operates.

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Right.

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Think we're you know, how much ammunition do we have, how much water, food.

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And actually, that's exactly what a business would do, right?

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I mean, they sit there and again, using Live Nation, you know,

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I mean, hey, we have X amount of money.

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How long can we

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sustain, right, without having any revenue?

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And you start making some of those hard choices

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and start doing some of those things right.

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How how long can you sustain and and where do we need to go?

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And then to your point, like, if it if it does go away, that thing goes away.

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All right.

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We we've got this amount of time that means we need to make and

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and using the boat analogy.

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All right.

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We we've got 30 days supply of food and water

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and the nearest port is 28 days away.

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So we have two days to make a decision.

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And we need to shove 13 people overboard.

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Well, and and so in four or two days, yeah, in two days

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we're making a decision and and then you start rationing.

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So then you start cutting salaries and you're not really doing

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that, you know, in our scenario.

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But then you start laying off people and start rationing and doing this.

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And and you start heading and you

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and you go, that is probably exactly what they do.

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The uncertainty part of this is the the one that I keep tripping up on

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because you could do that and say we have two days to make a decision

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assuming the worst case scenario.

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Yeah, right. Yep.

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And and how how much resources are you going to spend

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preparing for the worst case.

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Like are you going to build a.

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I'm switching gears here a little bit, but are you going to build a bomb shelter,

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stock it up with six years of food, spend, you know, two or three years salary

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doing that when there's like a 1% chance of something happening.

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Right.

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And arguably, like if you were risk planning for a pandemic,

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it probably should have been a pretty high percentage that

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something like this was going to happen again soon with the uncertainty,

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like you don't even know what to plan for at that point. So

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which is

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why I go back to and I really appreciate this conversation because I,

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I love to hear the the thought of like, yeah, how,

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how long is this boat going to stay afloat and how long are these people

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going to be able to survive before mutiny or something else?

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Right.

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And to me, I circle back to that.

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Uncertainty has to exist for everyone at some level.

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And what's most important, I feel, is

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can you get that boat to work together towards something together?

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Right.

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Whatever it is, I think it requires,

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even if you don't have the time to,

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I think you've got to find a way to to make as much

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time as you can to really,

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you know, engage and interact with what the people on the boat.

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Yeah, right. Folks, where are we going?

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Where do we want to go?

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This is this is why you all came here.

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That destination is now uncertain and we have to chart a new course.

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And you were all here for that reason or a reason before.

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And I need to route I the only way we're getting out of this,

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this unknown future is if we do it together.

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Right?

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And so it comes back to, yes, we need to survive.

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Yes, we need to figure out how we're going to get to wherever. Yes.

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Like we have limited resources.

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Yes. To all those things.

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What's going to get us all

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to pull through to where you get a moment of of certainty.

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Right.

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Something will come along that you can grab grasp on to.

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And what's important when those moments come around

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is you've got a team behind that can push you. There, right?

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Yeah.

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You know, I feel like I think the worry for me is

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do you worry so much about,

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you know, not having a destination, not having a chart,

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trying to keep everything together, pulling it together, that you're

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you're going to overlook something that you can channel everyone's

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energy and effort to go.

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That's where I go with that.

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Are you suggesting

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that you don't play to lose more so than you still play to win?

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Oh, that's an interesting question

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as that's going in front of me saying this like I'm pretty risk averse.

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I like to have contingency plans, backup plans, Like if I were to start a business

Speaker:

pandemic coming would certainly be one of the scenarios

Speaker:

that we play out and prepare for.

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I think what I'm trying to get

Speaker:

across is vision and values.

Speaker:

I feel very broken record many times as we talk on the show and each other.

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I think the vision for your business, your organization,

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your purpose is so important that it has to be

Speaker:

the thing that folks can always fall back on, that people can turn to and say,

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Hey, we're in the middle of a pandemic, we're at Life Nation.

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We can't do live events.

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What are we going to do?

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How are we going to make this business successful?

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How are we going to keep our people fulfilled?

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How are we going to live out the values and the vision of our

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our our reason for being with our method and means now removed from us?

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Right.

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So if you if your company was terrible at the vision and values

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things or just had the wrong ones, like what happens

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in an event like that, that's just so profound.

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My my feeling is if you don't have that as a starting point,

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you're set up for failure from the beginning.

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So like, I don't know, I always think there's there's, there's

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a time and place to do that.

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Like if you haven't done it, you better do it.

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Now is like my only thought about that.

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My, my like true deepest original thought is like,

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if you're going to set something up, have a vision

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and value from it from the get go so you can fall back.

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I mean, that should be why you're doing something right.

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Like making money is great and that's important.

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And I would like to do that and I'm on board with that.

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What's I think going to make that a reality is if you have a vision that can

Speaker:

you can share, you can you can tell that story, you can rally people behind you.

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That's that's that's my take. Yeah.

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I personally agree with you.

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I think you've got to have a good vision, a rough direction as it may be changing.

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And it will.

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Be as it will ever be changing.

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You know, I think the there there's probably

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a couple of things in there, though, like like and I take this from a

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a say like a either, you know, on the boat with people's lives

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or in a safety world, some of it is non-negotiable.

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Like if you are if you're a manufacturing company right around

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danger, you know, metal and sharp things, you know, like, you know, you,

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you know, there's zero tolerance, right?

Speaker:

I mean, you have to have zero.

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It has to be this way.

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And and, you know, and

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and I guess in a way, you've got a good purpose.

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It might not necessarily be the people,

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everyone collaborating and getting their

Speaker:

because I, I fear people also tend to

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you know,

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could fall into the trap of cutting corners and doing things.

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So you need somebody to hold everybody accountable and keep marching along

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and having some of these things that are non-negotiable.

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So what I hear you saying, this is your value talking.

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Yeah, right. Yeah.

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So I and maybe I should have been more like, like truly sincere when I say

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vision and values and I truly mean both of those things at the same time.

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Okay. Yeah.

Speaker:

So, like, the vision is important, but vision is nothing without a value side.

Speaker:

Okay. Yeah, I totally agree with you.

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And, and that's, that's what's going to shape

Speaker:

where you're going to go if, if the the bump in the road,

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the destination changes, the the unthinkable happens.

Speaker:

Right.

Speaker:

It's going to it's

Speaker:

going to help you survive or may even, you know,

Speaker:

determine whether you survive.

Speaker:

Yeah. Yeah.

Speaker:

I think that's a really good point.

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Whether you survive or not,

Speaker:

I think is based on yeah, a lot of things but yeah yeah vision advisory land

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but what's coming up for you just conversations going on.

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I'm a big believer in vision and values too.

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And where, where it's cut my head in a fun place right now.

Speaker:

What do you need in a VUCA world to move forward right?

Speaker:

Vision is one of those some unyielding commitment to values.

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Yeah.

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Collaboration. Yeah. Action.

Speaker:

Wait, did you just do.

Speaker:

I did a new fucker. I did. Oh, my goodness.

Speaker:

So say it one more time.

Speaker:

I bet Ben's looking at you with a blank stare.

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Now, now you.

Speaker:

Talked about VUCA ness before.

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Yeah. Yeah.

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So I feel like it wasn't a made up term.

Speaker:

Or did you. VUCA itself know. VUCA ness?

Speaker:

Oh yeah.

Speaker:

Taylor I think just coined at the beginning of the show.

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Okay. That's why I just. VUCA this.

Speaker:

And now you're now hit me with something better.

Speaker:

So a new terminology what you need to respond

Speaker:

in a VUCA world is, is vision

Speaker:

some sort of unyielding commitment?

Speaker:

I don't know that it could work on the new part for sure.

Speaker:

Collaboration and action.

Speaker:

Yes, VUCA meets VUCA.

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I love that. Yeah.

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VUCA was okay.

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Yeah, I think that is really, really, really insightful.

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I love that so much. Yeah, so do I.

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How are you actually going to run a company differently

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to be a little more resilient in a VUCA world?

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Honest to gosh, like thinking this through, like, I think they're, you know,

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kind of like, think about, like some brainstorming around

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external forces that play on you.

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And obviously I've this, this was born from the military

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and they they probably, you know, kind of play out

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some of these war games and simulations and things that happen.

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Honestly I really am taking from this that companies

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should be doing the same thing.

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Like, you know what, what happens if we can't get this thing that we sell

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or what happens if if this customer segment goes away.

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So what I'm taking from this is that

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I think that maybe there needs to be some more

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like open thinking,

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you know, about about pressures and things that could come.

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So you can be prepared.

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And of course, if the unthinkable happens,

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you're not going to have all the answers. Right.

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But you can at least have a plan in place to go

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attack that that situation and

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and maybe even go as far.

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And and you brought this up.

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You know, if you don't have a succession plan for, you know, somebody that leaves

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maybe have a have a little bit of a succession plan built into this.

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Right.

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Like if you're talking about a big organization like, hey,

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if all hell breaks loose and our our,

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you know, CEO who is great

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leaves, dies, whatever,

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who is going to fill backfill for him and

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and then who can help backfill in you know like what would that path look like?

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So I guess maybe disaster planning.

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Disaster planning, all right. I don't know if that's

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you know, that's not a that's not a really exciting acronym.

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And I didn't know come up and invent something on the show.

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But, you know, that's my $0.02.

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What I think about the whole is like, honestly, if you walk out of here and say,

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you know what, we haven't talked about disaster planning at all

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in your industry, specifically in the sales side of things,

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you probably could have benefited of somebody

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asking the question like, what happens if all this changes?

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Like how are we going to,

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you know, keep our salespeople engaged and paid and happy?

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Because now it's all kind of like a probably a pretty quick work in progress.

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So. Yeah, yeah.

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I mean, it goes fast.

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Change is faster.

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I agree with Brett.

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I think if enterprise risk assessment is not something

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that your business is doing, it's certainly something good to do

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and is like, yeah, and I think it's really easy for

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like especially like newer business.

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I see it like new businesses and really established businesses

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to get complacent in terms of or maybe not complacent, complacent,

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maybe an established and not have enough time or energy like in a new space, right?

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Like everything's a risk when you're you're so brand new.

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Right.

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But that kind of brings a VUCA like the VUCA brings us things together, right?

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Everything is uncertain.

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So one, I love the suggestion

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of like enterprise risk management scenario planning.

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Got to do it.

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I think for me again, and I've already laid into this,

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but I'm just going to keep laying into it.

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I think in the midst of whatever

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disaster or,

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you know, risks that would manifest, you've got to have a vision

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and value said.

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And then if you if you can't go to your employee base at the outset

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of a pandemic of what like a cataclysmic event for your organization,

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whatever it is, and say we know that this is bad and we know this has changed

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everything that we were working on, but we know what's important to us

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and we know why we're here and why we brought you on.

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And the outcome might look a little different now.

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And we don't we don't even know what the outcome looks like now.

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But we know what we believe in

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and we know what we stand for and we know why we're here.

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And so I think the closing thought is just to lean into that

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and to always have that as your fallback and the manager

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will, you know, have to be worked out.

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Just, you know, make sure that you've got that that guiding Northstar

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those principles to really, really lean into when times get really, really bad.

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So this

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conversation has really made me think about open book management

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right now, which is the business practice of creating transparency

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by sharing financial information with employees.

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And I think if you start

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a company with that level of transparency, almost empowerment,

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it creates a culture of innovation and protection of business.

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And that's where my mind when is like, how do you actually structure

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the business to feel safe enough to innovate, to be empowered,

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to respond to all these changes?

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And in this, you're bringing people

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along for the ride the entire time

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from a vision, perspective, finance, all of it.

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I think you're playing catch up as soon as something goes wrong.

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So I know that's probably a risky proposition.

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It's a it's a hard thing to do, but I mean.

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We've I mean, we've got a chance to engage with representatives from companies

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that have done open book management, which is where we learn from it.

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So not pie in the sky, real thing. And

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if it's done well, the benefits are amazing.

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Employee owned companies do ESOPs right?

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I mean that's and and having everyone take ownership in an act like an owner.

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Yeah all the way down right and

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and and having

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obviously having an ownership stake

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in the company and then also like knowing that

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every everything you're doing

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is affecting the outcome of or well

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plays a role and the outcome of the company and.

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And I don't I don't know how you get through a like if we're in a VUCA world

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where it's going to be like pandemic every couple of years or whatever it is,

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I do not know how you run a business without getting to some level

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where people are more engaged and feel a sense of ownership.

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I just don't understand how you would because people will either jump ship or

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or, you know, you're going to let them go for whatever reason because of finances.

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And maybe this is back to the whole public company versus private company

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type of conversation that that we've danced around.

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And, you know, it's really hard to predict like what

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any individual, I should say, what the motives of a person are.

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But what comes up to me when you say that are you know,

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I think there's folks out there who, faced with the pandemic situation,

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may feel like they I'm the CEO of this organization.

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I have to make these calls like I was paid for these to make these decisions.

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Yeah. By myself or a close circle. Right.

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You know, maybe because I can't agree more with you. I

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like opening that up, that dialog up, and being transparent

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and looking for ideas from every corner of the business is so important.

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And leaders, I think, can feel the pressure

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to feel like I have to make this call.

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Yeah, right. This is what I paid for.

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And so I'm not going to actually seek alternative perspective is or

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maybe they'll be very limited and focused and then I'm going to make that call.

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As a general practice,

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you should always be looking for those ideas.

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You should have means and methods to just like let your

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those ideas need to have a place to live and breathe and feel free to flow.

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